It’s show time! After all the heart-breaking back-stories, quirkiness and “I can’t believe they didn’t get through” moments that usually come with the audition and preliminary periods of “American Idol” (how annoying are back-stories at this point?), we have finally arrived at the live shows in which 10 hopefuls battle it out for the crown previously donned by Kelly Clarkson, Fantasia & Carrie Underwood (the American Idol winners they slay my life the most). Let’s get into it.

The Top 10 Thing: 1st of all, let’s talk about the fact that there isn’t a top 12. How long have they been doing that? Did I miss something? Even though it makes the grueling and sometimes daunting to watch competition shorter, I don’t like the fact that there aren’t 12 and no wild-card picks this year. For those who have watched Idol over the years, we all know what a savior wild-card picks can be (see Jennifer Hudson), even though most end up getting voted out again anyway (see Jennifer Hudson). I hated it when they stopped taking 12 on tour in Season 3, so I’m a little glad that on tonight’s results episode, 2 booted contestants will get a chance to compete for a spot in a sing-off. Can’t they get a spot on the show too? Dang.

Nicki Minaj & The Judges: Minaj has proven everyone, even me, wrong when it comes to her judging abilities. Many questioned what insight she could offer since she’s a newcomer (her debut album dropped in 2010)who isn’t primarily a singer, but in an ironic twist, she’s given some of the most useful and constructive critiques. In a very motherly fashion, Minaj gives it to contestant’s straight, but reminds them of their strengths and encourages them to be creative and flexible (as opposed to the usual pushing them into one particular sound or genre). She even had the guts to strongly oppose comments made by label head Jimmy Iovine ( whose company contracts the winning contestant), who judges typically don’t challenge out of “respect.” Keith Urban irritates me often; he seems to always insist the contestant stick to doing one thing. Mariah Carey isn’t doing what Idol hired her to in my opinion. Obviously they wanted someone as established as she not only for ratings attention, but because her skill and experience, and yet she playing it Paula Abdul (a former judge) and super sweet. No, I didn’t expect her to be cut-throat like Simon Cowell, but I expected firmness and concrete assessments. Carey seems to beat around the bush and sugar-coat, but I guess someone had to be the “nice one.”

Predictions: I have to say, I’m pretty disappointed in this season’s crop of contestants. No one is flat-out terrible, but there’s too much “decent” and not enough stellar. My following predictions are not based on who I think is the most talented, but previous voting patterns over the last 11 seasons. Let’s face it, when it comes to voting, it isn’t just about raw talent. Personality, looks, genre, week-to-week song choice and yes, race, are all factors in voting outcomes. Candice and Curtis have the strongest voices in my opinion, but I don’t think either have a chance at winning. I thought Curtis would go far until last night, when he chose to perform “I Believe” by Fantasia. The category for the week was songs by other Idol winners; contestants could choose to sing an original song by an Idol or a song an Idol performed while on the show (many defeated the purpose by doing prior performance songs). The problem with “I Believe” was that the song is so unique to Fantasia, he’d either get compared if he sung it like her, or criticized for changing it. He chose to change it by downplaying it vocally and it was a miss. Candice should win the whole darn thing, but again, let’s face it: if you aren’t adorable and don’t do pop, country or acoustic rock, you won’t win. That being said, among the female contestants, Angie & Janelle have the strongest shot. Angie needs to watch her song choices though. With the guys, I can’t put my finger on it. Maybe Devin (whose voice is so smooth and sensual) and Paul have the best chances. Lazaro is darling, but I don’t think knows what songs best suit him and will pull in votes, therefore his picks will likely send him packing early on. Burnell may surprise everyone and pop up in the top 5 or 6 (there’s always that middle ground person who gets better with time and becomes a favorite). Cree and Amber may go home early as well. Cree’s issue is that she has too much blues and soul in her style. She has that country element, but if Janelle stays on pitch and makes the right selections, there’s no need for Cree. Amber has Candice to contend with, so likely lose that war. However, based on what I said about genre, Amber might knock Candice out because she has a more pop-friendly tone.

Those are my predictions. What do you guys think?
Fox’s “American Idol” airs Wednesdays and Thursdays at 8/7c.

Rock & Rant-when I need to quickly rant about music.

Fox’s “American Idol” has been the kingpin of talent-based programming since the “reality TV” boom in the early 2000’s, but the list of new talent shows with their own distinctive spin on the “Idol” blueprint is ever growing, and each program (including “Idol”) is desperately resorting to lots of blatant gimmicks to attract and/or retain viewers. Playing with the judge’s panel has been a popular (and annoying) trick. Shows like NBC’s “The Voice” and ABC’s summer series, “Duets,” employed all-star casts (including Grammy winner Christina Aguilera and “Idol” alum Kelly Clarkson) to garner ratings. When Simon Cowell didn’t get the attention he anticipated on his U.S. edition of “X-Factor” by rekindling his bantering “Idol” flame with Paula Abdul, Abdul and Pussycat Doll Nicole Scherzinger were scrapped for Britney Spears and former Disney darling, Demi Lovato. With every few judge rotations, “Idol” ups the celebrity ante; from talk-show host Ellen Degeneres, entertainer Jennifer Lopez and rock legend Steven Tyler, to one of the biggest-selling divas of all-time, Mariah Carey. Word on the street is that “Idol” is looking to fill another empty judge chair with singer Nick Jonas or hip-hop starlet Nicki Minaj.

While I’m happy to see that in most cases, qualified industry personalities are involved in judges’ picks, the moments where that’s not the case agitates me because it’s SO OBVIOUS that it’s all about ratings and not about providing aspiring singers with proper mentoring. I understand that these programs are in the business of TV and music is going to be an afterthought, but making music a 2nd-in-line priority could positively affect viewership. “X-Factor” sent the clear message they were only concerned with statistics when they paid millions to contract Spears, who has been criticized her whole career for lacking substantial talent. Granted, the pop queen is familiar with touring, promoting and the dark side of fame, but the idea that she will be evaluating, coaching and choosing songs for contestants seems to be a bit ironic and inappropriate. Lovato is a singer-songwriter with a solid voice who plays piano and guitar, but she’s been a major artist for only 4 short years. Jonas is the same age as Lovato with 2 more years on her career. Minaj, whose abilities and consistency is often debated, is equally unseasoned with just 3 years in the public eye. These celebrity names might be beneficial for ratings, but it may not be for the contestants who have to improve weekly to receive votes and hit the ground running once they win and sign a recording contract.

Why should TV execs care if contestants are properly nurtured? Well, if they aren’t nurtured, the contestants may give lackluster performances that no one will want to watch and release albums that no one will want to buy. If their talent level is mediocre or the sales aren’t there, the record label will either drop or put little energy into them. With that result, viewers who voted will feel disillusioned about their perceived input and stop watching. There’s a whole trickle-down effect. I strongly believe I’m onto something, considering “Idol’s” ratings have slowly, but surely decreased with each season, voter numbers for other music programs aren’t as high and most winning contestants don’t go on to have flourishing careers. For example, out of 11 “Idols,” only 2 (Kelly Clarkson & Carrie Underwood) have had massive record sales. “Voice” has yet to produce a top-billing act and we haven’t heard much from “X-Factor’s” inaugural winner, Melanie Amaro.

Since we’re on the subject sales, there are many possible reasons that most winning contestants don’t do well. Sometimes the winner is an indifferent talent who flew under the radar all season or was liked for a superficial reason (ex. looks or personality). A big chunk of it is how the record label handles things after the competition. There have been many cases of poor promotion and marketing; sometimes the label doesn’t even try (like with “Idol” 9 winner, Lee DeWyze, for example). A great illustration of marketing missteps would be the management of Idols Ruben Studdard and Fantasia Barrino’s careers. Both were pigeon-holed into core R&B/soul. This was a mistake, considering the demographic that watches “American Idol” consists mostly of Caucasian women ages 18-49 with a cluster of southerners and female teens who do most of the (repeat) voting. Let’s face it: this population doesn’t listen to R&B. If anything, they listen to pop/R&B (the key being pop comes 1st). Couple this with the fact that most young people illegally download music and primarily purchase singles versus albums, and you have poor record sales. Additionally, the “Idol” audience wants to see an artist do whatever they saw on the show; which is a versatile mix of popular contemporary music through the years. The less mainstream, pop or country your album is, the less likely the viewers who voted for you will buy your stuff. Guess the record executives didn’t anticipate TV politics affecting their business. Maybe TV and music shouldn’t blend together if they aren’t going to consider each other’s modes of operation.